I should consider the impact of external factors or unexpected changes on my business.
How this helps you
Scenario planning helps you prepare for the future. It is very unlikely that your scenario’s will come true in the exact same form you planned them. Still it makes you aware that different scenarios are possible and helps you prepare your reaction.
What is it?
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that organisations use to make flexible long-term plans. It evolves around setting different scenarios for the (near) future. It is not about predicting, projecting, or forecasting the future. Instead, it is about exploring the future, trying to visualise what could be a realistic outcome in the future, without assuming it will happen. It comes from classic methods used in military strategy.
How does it relate?
Scenario planning helps you recognise and act to certain signals that you need to be aware of for your business. The challenge is to recognise the two or three biggest influences. Once you found them, creating valuable scenarios becomes easier.
Your next Waypoint
Challenge yourself to find the biggest influences on your idea. Describe and develop a few scenarios for the market landscape that your company may be in next coming years. Read more on this via wikipedia.org/scenario_planning or the book ‘Scenario Planning, A field guide to the future’ by Woody Wade.